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[…] space of “Bob and Doug” and was until last December the most-flown member of SpaceX’s fleet, toppled over on the drone ship’s deck and was partially lost at sea. Notable successes included the synchronized return of Falcon Heavy side-boosters to Landing Zones […]
[…] after a half-century of human imagination—Hubble had weathered financial and technical woes and an appalling national tragedy as it weaved its way from the drawing-board to the launch […]
[…] 5:26 p.m. EDT opening launch attempt and Thursday’s 5:05 p.m. EDT backup opportunity to get a 12-times-flown booster airborne for the 39th Falcon 9 flight of the year and the eighth so far this […]
[…] As outlined in an earlier AmericaSpace story, current plans call for Wilmore and Williams to spend up to ten Flight Days (FDs) aloft, with ISS Flight Director Vincent LaCourt having noted that their Crew Flight Test (CFT) mission objectives are attainable in a minimum of eight “docked” days at the ISS. According to the timeline, the astronauts will dock at the forward-facing port of the station’s Harmony node about 25 hours after launch to be welcomed aboard the sprawling orbital complex by incumbent Expedition 71 Commander Oleg Kononenko, fellow Russian cosmonauts Nikolai Chub and Aleksandr Grebenkin and NASA’s Matt Dominick, Mike Barratt, Jeanette Epps and Tracy Dyson. […]
[…] As outlined in an earlier AmericaSpace story, current plans call for Wilmore and Williams to spend up to ten Flight Days (FDs) aloft, with ISS Flight Director Vincent LaCourt having noted that their Crew Flight Test (CFT) mission objectives are attainable in a minimum of eight “docked” days at the ISS. According to the timeline, the astronauts will dock at the forward-facing port of the station’s Harmony node about 25 hours after launch to be welcomed aboard the sprawling orbital complex by incumbent Expedition 71 Commander Oleg Kononenko, fellow Russian cosmonauts Nikolai Chub and Aleksandr Grebenkin and NASA’s Matt Dominick, Mike Barratt, Jeanette Epps and Tracy Dyson. […]
@NASAAstronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams arrived in Florida on Thursday for their long-awaited Starliner launch, targeted for NET 6 May.
The post Wilmore, Williams Arrive in Florida, Ahead of Historic Starliner Launch NET 6 May first appeared on AmericaSpace.
[…] after a half-century of human imagination—Hubble had weathered financial and technical woes and an appalling national tragedy as it weaved its way from the drawing-board to the launch […]
OTD in 1990, @NASAHubble began its mission to explore the cosmos. It is a mission that continues more than 30 years later.
The post “Somebody Get a Camera”: Remembering the Deployment of Hubble, OTD in 1990 first appeared on AmericaSpace.
In reply to James Hillhouse.
Lunar lander in 2026 is very possible, and probable.
Manned lunar lander is a whole other issue.
[…] space of “Bob and Doug” and was until last December the most-flown member of SpaceX’s fleet, toppled over on the drone ship’s deck and was partially lost at sea. Notable successes included the synchronized return of Falcon Heavy side-boosters to Landing Zones […]
@SpaceX has completed its 300th successful landing of a Falcon vehicle with Tuesday's post-sunset flight of B1078.
The post SpaceX Completes Tenth Launch of April, 300th Falcon Landing first appeared on AmericaSpace.
In reply to Rodney.
Rodney,
In reading and watching his congressional testimony January 17th, I didn’t get the impression that Griffin “hated” Starship. Instead, what he disliked are decisions made by those no longer within NASA in an efforts to return to the Moon, HLS contractors who are promising a capability to land astronauts on the Moon knowing full well that the likelihood of meeting that challenge by promised dates is very low to zero, all of which means that there is a real non-zero chance that China could beat us to the Moon.
Let’s begin with one point Griffin challenged in his January testimony; NASA’s choice of a NRHO, which has a period of 6.5 days. As he testified,
“If a lunar crew encounters a problem on the surface that mandates a return to the comparative safety of the Gateway, then depending upon when that problem occurs, a multi-day wait may be required. It is possible in some scenarios to wait in low lunar orbit (LLO), but access to the Gateway is only possible at periodic intervals.”
What Griffin didn’t mention is that such a stay could last far longer in some cases, such as if the landing crew are forced to make a “touch-and-go” landing, as NASA puts it, and need to remain in a quiescent state.
Regarding NASA’s choice of lunar lander requirements (see NASA’s Appendix H: Human Landing System, Attachment F, HUMAN LANDING SYSTEM (HLS) REQUIREMENTS DOCUMENT, HLS-RQMT-001 Document Rev-R (SRD), (Document Number HLS_RQMT-001) Griffin testified,
“Tactically, the selected mission architectures pose significant concerns. SpaceX’s approach requires an impractically large number of orbital refueling operations for even a single lunar mission, while Blue Origin’s mission design depends on the development of one of the most difficult enabling technologies for long-duration space flight, zero-boiloff cryogenic fuel storage.
These architectures feature concepts – cryogenic propellant storage, likely in large depots with low, controllable boiloff – that are critical to long-term, sustainable human space exploration. But while important, their development is unlikely to be completed easily or quickly, and over the last half-century we have used up the time that could have been devoted to the evolution of Apollo-era systems to a more sustainable architecture. Like it or not, we are engaged in a
competition with others who do not wish us well; timeliness maters.”
What Griffin is pointing out are issues with the Artemis architecture. He points out that none of the HLS landers can go to the Moon without some exotic capability not available today nor likely soon, and that pursuing those capabilities isn’t as important as reaching the Moon before our adversaries do. That isn’t “hating” Starship so much as pointing out obvious downsides to the HLS portion of the Artemis architecture and faced by both SpaceX and Blue Origin.
Regarding Starship in his testimony, Griffin offers a frequentist approach in analyzing the probability of a Starship lunar landing for a given range of required refueling missions and probability of those being successful. As you might recall from probability, each refueling mission is ideally an independent event. The total probability is the product of the individual probabilities. So, if 10 refueling launches are needed and if each has a (unrealistically high) reliability of 99%, then the total probability of success of those 10 missions is 90%. But, if the reliability of each refueling mission drops even a smidge, to say 97%, the total probability of 10 refueling missions drops to 74%; a drop to 95% means a total of just under 60%. I don’t think even the most diehard SpaceX fan can look at those numbers and feel comfortable at the overall mission risk.
Perhaps I’ve evolved too thick a skin having written on space matters over the last 16 years, but Griffin’s testimony regarding Starship doesn’t sound like “hate”, as you write, but well argued, darn hard to refute concerns.
To your point that some in NASA and Blue will be happy when, not if, it becomes unavoidable that Starship will not be ready for Artemis III? With all due respect Rodney, I don’t think most outside of NASA and its contractors realize that there is a zero chance SpaceX will be ready for Artemis III. Or IV. Even Elon admitted last January that SpaceX wouldn’t be ready to land astronauts on the Moon until 2028, and given his record, that likely means sometime in the 2030’s.
The important point is that there is a non-zero chance that we’re going to have a crewed lunar capable lander by 2028 (Elon’s words, not mine) or later. The most important point isn’t whose lander, whether SpaceX or Blue Origin, gets us to the Moon. The most important point, as laid-out by those paying for the Artemis program – that would be Congress – is that we get back to the Moon before our adversaries do.
And to be clear, Griffin made the case in his testimony that between NASA’s lunar architecture, its HLS office’s HLS requirements, the lander contractors, the lunar spacesuit contractors, things are looking bad.
Nobody wants the day of reckoning when it becomes unavoidable for Congress not to notice that NASA’s NRHO choice, the HLS program office’s decision to forbid any use of SLS to launch lunar landers, and the contractors may very well prevent the US from reaching the Moon first. But that day is coming, and likely the pieces will start falling after Artemis II lifts off.
Lastly, as concerns your point about, “…knee jerk reaction can be modified for reusable launch vehicles. eg. if a vehicle fails on its 20th launch, do new or fairly new vehicles need to be stood down ? Or, if a new vehicle fails on its first launch, do proven vehicles need to be stood down ?” Having been a pilot, I know that even long legacy systems can surprise. So, no, that “knee-jerk reaction” won’t, hopefully, ever go away. As Hans Mark, a former NASA Deputy Administrator and professor of mine, once said, “Americans don’t like it when you kill their astronauts.”
In reply to jeff Lee.
Thank you, Jeff! I am glad that you found it to be informative.
In reply to Alex Longo.
Hi Alex, Thanks for responding.
Mike Griffin said to a Congressional committee, IIRC that USA should not use Starship for Artemis and should use government owned vehicles instead. All his other comments I interpret in that light.
During the January press conference on the delays to Artemis 2 and 3, it came across as NASA needed to delay Artemis 2 because of the issues with Orion, so they mentioned Starship and the Axiom space suits for Artemis 3 as a distraction from Orion. “Safety” was their top priority, so they can use more-testing-needed for future delays. They gave the impression that delays were business-as-usual.
I get the impression that Blue Origin, and some in NASA, would be happy to say Starship won’t be safe or on time for Artemis 3 so lets drop it and wait for the Blue Origin lander being developed for Artemis 5.
Yes, after a launch failure there is almost always a long delay for investigation. I hope that knee jerk reaction can be modified for reusable launch vehicles. eg. if a vehicle fails on its 20th launch, do new or fairly new vehicles need to be stood down ? Or, if a new vehicle fails on its first launch, do proven vehicles need to be stood down ? And, as we have seen with Falcon 9, reusable vehicles can be extremely reliable once in high cadence operation. And the reuse allows plenty of practice of transferring propellant to a depot. So all the hand wringing by Mike Griffins about the risk of multiple launches seems overdone.
Sad BTW that the commenting facility on this website (unlike most others) does not seem to allow minor corrections to recent comments.
Thanks for a very concise and well written article. It’s nice so see that you’ve done your research and actually shared articles to back your research. Very refreshing to read a good article without all the political agenda! It was a very good read.
[…] community is when American astronauts will return to the Moon. NASA originally aimed to land the first woman and next man on the Moon by 2024, but that date was pushed back repeatedly to September of 2026 at the earliest. The largest […]
The empty weight of SLS is 188,000 pounds
Starship empty weight is 220,000 pounds.
Suppose we had SLS and air-start RS-25s
What payload does that give you now?
[…] originally aimed to land the first woman and next man on the Moon by 2024, but that date was pushed back repeatedly to September of 2026 at the earliest. The largest source of uncertainty in the schedule is SpaceX’s […]
[…] two failed test flights in April and November of 2023, Starship successfully reached orbital velocity on March 14th. It became the most powerful rocket to ever reach this […]
[…] is when American astronauts will return to the Moon. NASA originally aimed to land the first woman and next man on the Moon by 2024, but that date was pushed back repeatedly to September of 2026 at the […]
Elon Musk recently disclosed that SpaceX's next-generation Starship rocket is dealing with a 50% performance shortfall. If it is not rectified, this issue could prevent Starship from landing NASA astronauts on the Moon during Artemis 3. SpaceX seeks to offset the underperformance with upgraded variants of Starship and its Raptor engine.
The post Starship Faces Performance Shortfall for Lunar Missions first appeared on AmericaSpace.
[…] 5:26 p.m. EDT opening launch attempt and Thursday’s 5:05 p.m. EDT backup opportunity to get a 12-times-flown booster airborne for the 39th Falcon 9 flight of the year and the eighth so far this […]
[…] 5:26 p.m. EDT opening launch attempt and Thursday’s 5:05 p.m. EDT backup opportunity to get a 12-times-flown booster airborne for the 39th Falcon 9 flight of the year and the eighth so far this […]
@SpaceX is targeting Wednesday night for its eighth Falcon 9 launch of April and its 39th of the year so far.
The post SpaceX Targets Tonight for Eighth Falcon 9 Launch of April first appeared on AmericaSpace.
OTD in 1972, Apollo 16 headed to the Moon...and almost didn't land.
The post “A Couple Weeks Later”: Remembering Apollo 16’s (Almost-Not) Moon Landing, OTD in 1972 first appeared on AmericaSpace.
[…] September’s Artemis 2 mission. Orion undoubtedly looks like a fully-functional spacecraft. The crew and service modules were mated last November, and the former is now shrouded in its reflective thermal protection system tiles. Inside the […]
[…] 2 mission. Orion undoubtedly looks like a fully-functional spacecraft. The crew and service modules were mated last November, and the former is now shrouded in its reflective thermal protection system […]
The Artemis 2 Orion spacecraft is undergoing vacuum testing at the Kennedy Space Center. We break down the timeline for the test, the anomalies which the team is resolving, and a surprising connection to the Apollo era.
The post Orion Spacecraft Enters Rarefied Air with Vacuum Test first appeared on AmericaSpace.
[…] less than a month since her most recent (19th) mission—and the 25th SpaceX flight of the year—was B1062, which entered service back in November 2020 […]
On the anniversary both of Yuri Gagarin's pioneering flight and the first Space Shuttle launch, @SpaceX on Friday successfully flew its first 20x-used Falcon 9 rocket.
The post On Cosmonautics Day, SpaceX Launches Record-Setting 20x-Flown Falcon 9 first appeared on AmericaSpace.
[…] has successfully flown its second dedicated U.S. Space Force payload of 2024, following Thursday’s spectacular launch of the inaugural Weather System Follow-on Microwave […]
[…] of B1083 brings to six the total number of launches from the East and West Coasts so far in April, including Tuesday’s 12:43 p.m. EDT liftoff of the final Delta IV Heavy mission, carrying the highly classified NROL-70 payload for the National Reconnaissance Office and closing […]
[…] In the 13th mission of the year out of Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif., the B1082 booster—one of the newest “West Coast Falcons”, having entered service only in January—sprang on time from Space Launch Complex (SLC)-4E at 7:25 a.m. PDT and returned eight minutes […]
[…] has successfully flown its second dedicated U.S. Space Force payload of 2024, following Thursday’s spectacular launch of the inaugural Weather System Follow-on Microwave […]
[…] a Falcon 9 out of Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Fla., early Wednesday as the B1083 booster—previously used last month to deliver Dragon Endeavour and her Crew-8 quartet of NASA astronauts Matt Dominick, Mike Barratt […]
[…] a Falcon 9 out of Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Fla., early Wednesday as the B1083 booster—previously used last month to deliver Dragon Endeavour and her Crew-8 quartet of NASA astronauts Matt Dominick, Mike Barratt […]
Only hours after @ULALaunch triumphantly flew its final "Most Metal" Delta IV Heavy rocket, @SpaceX has flown its fifth Falcon 9 of April.
The post After Delta IV Heavy’s Swansong, Cape Roars to Accelerated Falcon 9 Launch Cadence first appeared on AmericaSpace.
@ULALaunch & @NatReconOfc have launched a highly secretive national security payload aboard the last-ever Delta IV Heavy, as the 63-year-old Delta Program comes to a bittersweet end.
The post For Final Time, ULA Launches “Most Metal” Delta IV Heavy Into History first appeared on AmericaSpace.
[…] inside the month’s opening week, as the Hawthorne, Calif.-headquartered organization wrapped up a dramatic triple-header weekend of launches. Inside April’s first seven days, four boosters that now boast almost 50 flights between them […]
[…] inside the month’s opening week, as the Hawthorne, Calif.-headquartered organization wrapped up a dramatic triple-header weekend of launches. Inside April’s first seven days, four boosters that now boast almost 50 flights between them […]
@SpaceX has successfully launched an 11-payload rideshare customer mission from the Space Coast, closing out a dramatic weekend triple-header of Falcon 9 missions.
The post SpaceX Completes Weekend Triple-Header, Launches 11-Payload Bandwagon-1 Stack first appeared on AmericaSpace.
[…] As previously detailed by AmericaSpace, the pre-weekend action began at 5:12 a.m. EDT Friday when the 14-times-used B1069 booster took flight from storied Space Launch Complex (SLC)-40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. The dazzling pre-dawn light and fire show occurred right on the opening of a 58-minute “window”, thanks in no small part to near-perfect Space Coast weather, which had earlier pledged 90-percent favorability with only the smallest risk of violating thick cloud and liftoff winds rules. […]
Following Saturday evening's @Starlink launch out of Vandenberg, attention now turns to the Space Coast for the completion of @SpaceX weekend triple-header later today.
The post SpaceX Aims to Complete Weekend Triple-Header With Tonight’s Bandwagon-1 Launch first appeared on AmericaSpace.
[…] Furukawa of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and Russian cosmonaut Konstantin Borisov for their 6.5-month Expedition 69/70 increment at the International Space Station (ISS). Two additional launches of B1081 last November and December delivered SpaceX’s CRS-29 Cargo […]
With one launch successfully achieved early Friday, @SpaceX is targeting late tonight for the second half of its pre-weekend Falcon 9 double-header.
The post SpaceX Primed to Complete Friday Double-Header of Falcon 9 Missions first appeared on AmericaSpace.
[…] and Vasilevskaya will wrap up almost 14 days in orbit, having launched from Site 31/6 at Kazakhstan’s Baikonur Cosmodrome on 23 March aboard Soyuz MS-25 with NASA astronaut Tracy Dyson. It is expected that Dyson will fold into the […]
[…] and October and a pair of O3b mPOWER communications satellites in November. Her 2024 campaign began with January’s launch of the Swedish Ovzon-3 geostationary broadband satellite and SpaceX’s first-ever “Leap Day” mission on 29 […]
[…] than a decade of active service, no less than 17 Falcon 9 vehicles—including a brand-new booster that came online earlier this year and a “coast-swapping” bird which launched four times from the East Coast before moving to […]
[…] than a decade of active service, no less than 17 Falcon 9 vehicles—including a brand-new booster that came online earlier this year and a “coast-swapping” bird which launched four times from the East Coast before moving to […]
It was no "April Fool" for @SpaceX on Monday night, as a many-times-delayed Vandenberg mission finally took flight and kicked off a busy month ahead.
The post Delayed Vandenberg Falcon 9 Mission Launches, Kicks Off Busy April for SpaceX first appeared on AmericaSpace.
[…] to feature an 11th and 12th Falcon 9 mission. Following Saturday’s on-time 5:52 p.m. EDT liftoff of the 12-times-used B1076 and the successful deployment of the 11,000-pound (5,000-kilogram) Eutels… for the Paris, France-based Eutelsat Consortium, another pair of boosters were set to fly from […]
